Basic Considerations for Argument and Evidence Evaluation
This post considers a set of useful mental tools for evaluating reasons and evidence. We will begin with a Bayesian treatment of missing evidence. The central question is straightforward: if a thorough search fails to uncover evidence that we would expect to find if a claim were true, how should that absence affect our confidence in the claim? On this page Part I — Missing Evidence and Bayesian Reasoning Definitions A Preliminary Probability Point Implications of the Bayesian Result Critical Questions for Evaluating Evidence Part II — Limits, Counterexamples, and Explanatory Reasoning When Confirmation Can Mislead: Black Swans and the Turkey The Raven Paradox and Evidential Relevance Abduction and Alternative Explanations Evidence as Argument and as Story Evaluating Statistical and Research Evidence A Working Conception of Evidence Part III — Analyzing Arguments Step 1: Clarify and Define Terms Step 2: Formulate the Argument Step 3: Determine whether the conclusion follow...