Basic Considerations for Argument and Evidence Evaluation
This post will be brief. I just want to consider some useful mental tools for evaluating reasons and evidence. Let's consider a mathematical derivation of missing evidence based on a Bayesian framework. What we want to do is show that rationally, if you cannot find evidence for some claim after a thorough search, then it is likely the event did not occur. Definitions Let X X be an arbitrary event, or combination of arbitrary events. Let \neg X ¬ X denote "NOT X" Let E E represent the existence of a set of positive evidences that would indicate the reality of X Let \neg E ¬ E denote "NOT E", or the total absence of positive evidence. Let P(x) P ( x ) denote the probability of event X X . Let P(X \mid E) P ( X ∣ E ) denote the conditional probability of X given E By definition, this is the joint probability of X AND E divided by the probability of E: P(X \mid E) = \frac{P(X \cap E)}{P(E)} P ( X ∣ E ) = P ( E ) P ( X ∩ E ) Let X be the intersection